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Prediction for CME (2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-28T20:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27920/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, with a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z with subsequent M3.4 flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or M9.8 flare peaking at 19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. The CME overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:48Z in the coronagraphs and may be considered a separate, measurable event from a portion of the complex eruption that is directed towards the west but could alternatively be the shock from a single CME event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 28nT, an increase in speed from 373 km/s to 560 km/s at 2023-12-0109:20Z, and subsequent increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T06:45Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 39.18 hour(s)
Difference: 2.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-11-29T17:37Z

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